Thursday, September 20, 2007

IAEA round must end by Nov 11

NEW DELHI: India has a deadline for the nuclear deal -- the US plans to formally present the India-US nuclear deal for an exemption at the NSG meeting in South Africa on November 11.

Since this can be possible only if India manages to sew up the details of its safeguards agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) before then, UPA government will soon be required to take a call on getting past the Left-dictated pause on negotiations with the IAEA.

To that extent, the US timetable may have the effect of precipitating the political confrontation which has looked certain but which the two sides have so far managed to avert.

India doesn't have to sign the safeguards agreement just yet, it will only be signed after the NSG and US Congress clears the deal. But the details of the agreement will need to be worked out.

The expectation is this -- the 45 member countries will certainly ask for over a month to make up their minds, work out the political calculations etc. Which means the US may call in an extraordinary meeting of the group in January to formally decide on the exemption.

Following this, the US wants to give the deal to the Congress for its mandatory up-down vote. Ideally, US has informed India, it would like to present it to Congress soon after the winter break.

The Congress itself has 90 days before voting on it, a very complicated process, involving restrictions on recess for more than three days etc.

Senior US official and chief technical negotiator of the 123 Agreement, Richard Stratford, said in Vienna on Thursday, "The US wants to meet the entire pre-requisites of the operationalisation of the deal by the end of this year."

He said the US will try to impress upon the NSG member nations the need for clean and unconditional exemption sought by India for nuclear trade under the Indo-US civil nuclear deal. It will be his job to convince the NSG of the viability and importance of the Indian nuclear deal.

"I will explain to the members how both India and the US arrived at the agreement and also put forth the conditions asked by India for a clean, unconditional exemption (from NSG rules to enable nuclear commerce)," Stratford was quoted as saying.

Meanwhile, in Ankara, US undersecretary Nicholas Burns said, "I think the US and India nuclear deal is... going to be successful, we are going to move forward on it, and you'll see that happen in the next few months." Everybody expects the NSG to be a difficult sell. Both US and India are separately preparing to hardsell the deal to the rest of the world.

While Americans are more conversant with the nitty-gritty of selling a deal, for Indian diplomacy, it's a novel exercise. It means the otherwise brahmanical minded foreign service will have to turn corporate lobbyists which is itself a difficult exercise.

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